Sunday, January 13, 2008

A lot of voters are irrational, and it shows

Samantha - Red and Blue by *photoswithattitude

Wagga sent the following "fodder". I certainly agree that a lot of voters are irrational - as are the politicians.
Thoughts...?

We haven't even made it to the California primary, but millions of Americans are already sick of hearing about the 2008 race.
Bad as the torrent of news is, I find the repetition of myths about voters and voting even more galling. Whether you're arguing with friends or watching the news, you hear many claims about how American democracy works that just aren't true.
1. People vote their self-interest.

In fact, there is only the tiniest correlation between income and party. The country is not divided into two camps: the poor, who vote Democrat, and the rich, who vote Republican. If you consider your own experiences, this is hardly surprising: Are your rich friends really Republicans and your poor friends Democrats?
Self-interest is also a bad predictor of views about specific issues. Yes, the elderly heavily support Social Security and Medicare, but so does almost everyone else. The old bumper sticker says, "If men could get pregnant, abortion would be a sacrament," but men are actually slightly more pro-choice than women. And so on. Pollsters have found a few exceptions where self-interest really matters, such as smoking restrictions, which smokers obviously tend to oppose. But overall, where voters stand has little to do with where they sit.
2. Unselfish voting will solve our problems.

We often blame political problems on the selfishness of our fellow citizens. If people would just sacrifice their own interests for the country's good, our problems would be solved, right?
Hardly. Selfishness is not the only cause of political strife. The U.S. electorate is bitterly divided by ideology and religion, and that's what makes our political disagreements so intractable. After all, if voters were truly selfish, they would negotiate amicable settlements and take what they could get, instead of zealously fighting the same battles year after year.
Even if the American public put aside ideological and religious differences, unselfish voting could easily be dangerous. If people are mistaken about how to make society better off, their good intentions will produce bad consequences. A selfless doctor who believes that leeches will cure cancer is dangerous. So is a selfless voter who truly believes that high tariffs will cure unemployment.
3. Voters' errors balance out.
It's fashionable to dismiss worries about the mistakes of the average voter by praising "the wisdom of crowds," to use James Surowiecki's phrase. Sure, the average voter knows little about politics, economics and policy. But for every voter who overestimates the benefits of tariffs, carbon taxes and the Iraq war, doesn't another make the opposite mistake?
Actually, no. Voters are frequently wrong in the same way. This is particularly clear in economics. If you've never studied economics, you're not equally likely to oversell or downplay the benefits of free trade. Instead, people who know nothing about economics are staunch protectionists, and people who know a lot of economics are avid free-traders.
The fact that voters' errors fail to cancel out seems strange. Why would people have strong opinions about a subject they've never studied? The simple answer is that a lot of voters are irrational, and it shows. In politics and economics, people believe what makes them feel good, even if the evidence is against them. For most Americans, it feels a lot better to scapegoat Mexicans or Chinese for the country's economic woes than it does to calmly examine the facts.
4. Political disagreement is all about values.

More from Five big fat lies about voters

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let me be the murst to say that I gave up all hope in, and lost all respect for, American voters when Connecticutt sent back that POS Lieberman even after he lost the demonrat endorsement. The people of America are totally sold out. They like the war, and they like things the way they are, no matter how much they claim the contrary. I see how Hitler came to power. It is the same thing here. U.S. citizens are not victims, they deserve their fate, IMO.

Ogg the Caveman said...

@ Edgar:

I just wrote and then deleted a very angry response to your comment, just as I did at the end of last week's political thread. Frankly your views horrify me, especially your frequent appeals to collective guilt. If this were somewhere else I'd mix it up with you even though I know nothing good would come of it, but this isn't somewhere else.

Out of respect for Akubi I will not respond to any of your political comments from now on.

Anonymous said...

I just wrote and then deleted a very angry response to your comment...

email to: yentes9076@mypacks.net

I would love to read it. I can't imagine what you find objectionable about that comment. The American voter is a combination of stupid &/or fascist. Do you disagree? Or perhaps you wish to argue that Joe Lieberman is not the biggest POS on the planet? Perhaps you think Bushco is more honorable than Chavez? Come on ogg, defend the American people, if you can.

Akubi said...

And here we have Ann Coulter minus the horse-like look.

Anonymous said...

Hey, I think that is ogg and a few of his friends beating up on a prisoner. Nice work, if you can get it.

Ogg the Caveman said...

Remember how Dr. Phil taped an episode with Casey Serin? It's going to air on Wednesday.

Next, Casey is only 24 but has already racked up $2.2 million in debt with rash real estate investing. He's been foreclosed on, receives calls from creditors, is considering bankruptcy, and recently, his wife handed him divorce papers. He's desperate to save his marriage, but is his wife willing to work things out?

Let's ask the magic 8 ball about that.

wagga said...

O & E;

In the going-on-two-and-a-half centuries since the framers of the Constitution delivered a user-modifiable codebase, we have putatively eliminated slavery, franchised women, and become the arsenal of democracy in two world conflicts. As well, we fixed the alcohol problem, gave women choice & got to the moon.

All of the above were the result of inspired leadership. After the irrational voters made their choice.

Our current crisis is energy - and I just don't see any leadership. Period. I suppose it's all in the hands of our irrational voters.

Anonymous said...

wagga, The voters have spoken, world conquest has been chosen.

wagga said...

@Edgar:

After the Bomb was dropped, the United States, unlike every other state which had ever developed an overwhelming technical advantage in warfare, opted to deploy the Marshall Plan, rather than enslave the rest of the world.

You could call it Democracy's finest hour. I call it astonishing.

Yes: There is an amazingly fine line between irrational voters electing a Roosevelt/Truman or a Third Reich.

Anonymous said...

In the early days, voting was restricted to land-owners, then expanded to women & then minorities.

All along, we should have required voters to pass some impartial test to verify that they understood the issues. Or something like that.

Anonymous said...

wagga, Good point. War weariness prompted the PTB to rebuild quickly. Watching WWII develop as a result of the onerous terms of WWI made them try a new tactic. I will even give the U.S. PTB the Korean and VietNam wars as a package deal with the cold war, which everyone seemed to agree was worth winning. However, these new wars, the resource wars, are clearly imperialistic, and they are/spawn terrorism too. If we let the present course go unaltered clearly bigger and bigger wars will result. China copies U.S. technology, they also monkey see monkey do out attitudes about procuring world resources. If we do not change to conservation and renewables the world will suffer more pollution and more wars.

Akubi said...

I’m not quite myself today because my favorite (and only) aunt is in the hospital and the overall situation doesn’t look good, but I’d like to get my mind off of that prior to mining sweet porn for no discernable reason…
@Ogg,
While I understand your cautious and concerned nature, I have also made plenty of over the top statements on EN out of frustration or irritation with whatever I was reading/watching. Sometimes I get very, very angry about the general state of affairs in this country and appreciate the fact that Edgar feels the same way – as well as your gentlemanly stance and response to that.
@Edgar,
C’mon that’s not Ogg. It was presented as a joke. BTW were you in the first Gulf war of the Bush legacy?
@Wagga,
I think we can all agree on this point:
Our current crisis is energy - and I just don't see any leadership. Period. I suppose it's all in the hands of our irrational voters.

Anonymous said...

The cost of the resource wars will continue for decades.

Anonymous said...

akubi, no I never served, but both sibs did. In fact, per capita, my state has the most men and women in the armed forces, I believe. It is economic oppression. The money maggots make sure that the south and midwest is very poor, then they turn them into IED fodder.

Ogg the Caveman said...

There's no leadership on energy independence because politicians like to get reelected. It's going to take individual sacrifice, sometimes large and sometime small, to get us out of this. People don't take well to being told to make sacrifices unless it's to avoid some clear and present danger. That's just human nature.

What makes the energy issue so dangerous is that we might very well overshoot the supply completely before people start feeling enough pain to really cut back.

Ogg the Caveman said...

@ Akubi:

I'm sorry about your aunt, and I hope she recovers fully.

Akubi said...

@Edgar,
I'm not all that familiar with the South, but when I was seriously considering moving to Wyoming and watched the tired troops returning to "The Desert" for the umpteenth time I wanted to vomit...Their fate unknown. Dick Cheney's? Sweet Halliburton deal to follow.

I found this line in the NYT link rather poetic: “Matthew knew he shouldn’t be taking his AK-47 to the 7-Eleven,”

@Ogg,
Thanks.

Akubi said...

Matthew knew he shouldn’t be taking his AK-47 to the 7-Eleven